bayesRatings

Yankees at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final NYY 13 – ATH 8
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY001300000013111
ATH3000004108120
Team box
NYY·ATH
11
hits
12
0
home runs
2
5
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
142
pitches thrown
169
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY2-5204
Jonah HeimATH1-5213
Brent RookerATH2-5111
Nick KurtzATH2-3101
Cody BellingerNYY2-4101
Trent GrishamNYY1-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will Warren (W)NYY6.06035
Jacob Lopez (L)ATH2.05723

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +10
NYY +10
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · NYY 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 58%, ATH 42% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
NYY by 1.6
Expected score
NYY 5.5 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
9.5
YankeesThe matchupAthletics
−136Our fair odds+136
5.5Expected runs4.0
+0.29Power rating−0.09
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.4Allowed / game4.7
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.48Home runs / game1.05
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
35−23Season record28−30
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · ATH chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13658%−18364.6%———
ATHAthletics+13642%+15239.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.6
NYYNew York Yankees−1.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.6 expected
New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byATH wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more50%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more40%
Athletics wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·ATH
May 30 at ATH
last game
May 30 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
NYY·ATH
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
35−23
season record
28−30
17−9
home record
11−16
18−14
away record
17−14
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.48
home runs / game
1.05
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.45
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

NYY · ATH · 67 days
New York YankeesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
May 30at ATHATH 6 − 4
May 29at ATHNYY 8 − 2
Apr 9at NYYATH 1 − 0
Apr 8at NYYATH 3 − 2
Apr 7at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 5
Jun 28, 2025at NYYATH 7 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at ATHNYY 12 − 2
May 10, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 7

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W
May 24vs TB2 − 0W
May 22vs TB2 − 4L
May 21vs TOR0 − 2L
May 20vs TOR1 − 2L
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W