bayesRatings

Yankees at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 9:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final NYY 4 – ATH 6
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000100003460
ATH20000121682
Team box
NYY·ATH
6
hits
8
0
home runs
3
9
walks
3
8
strikeouts
11
129
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH3-4212
Tyler SoderstromATH3-3111
Shea LangeliersATH1-3112
Zack GelofATH1-4001
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4100
Ben RiceNYY1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY6.265310
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.04034
Scott Barlow (S)ATH0.10030

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: ATH 5 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 59%, ATH 41% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
NYY by 1.7
Expected score
NYY 5.6 – 3.9 ATH
Expected total
9.6
YankeesThe matchupAthletics
−141Our fair odds+141
5.6Expected runs3.9
+0.31Power rating−0.10
5.1Runs / game4.2
3.4Allowed / game4.7
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.51Home runs / game1.02
4.3Walks drawn / game3.8
35−22Season record27−30
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · ATH chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−14159%−16161.7%———
ATHAthletics+14141%+13442.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.7
NYYNew York Yankees−1.7our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.7 expected
New York Yankees by 16 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 7%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byATH wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more51%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more41%
Athletics wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·ATH
May 29 at ATH
last game
May 29 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
NYY·ATH
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.1
runs / game
4.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
35−22
season record
27−30
17−9
home record
10−16
18−13
away record
17−14
W5
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.51
home runs / game
1.02
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.46
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

NYY · ATH · 66 days
New York YankeesAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
May 29at ATHNYY 8 − 2
Apr 9at NYYATH 1 − 0
Apr 8at NYYATH 3 − 2
Apr 7at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at NYYNYY 12 − 5
Jun 28, 2025at NYYATH 7 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 0
May 11, 2025at ATHNYY 12 − 2
May 10, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 7
May 9, 2025at ATHNYY 10 − 2

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W
May 24vs TB2 − 0W
May 22vs TB2 − 4L
May 21vs TOR0 − 2L
May 20vs TOR1 − 2L
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W