bayesRatings

Brewers at Astros

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 3:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final MIL 2 – HOU 9
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL100010000260
HOU030030039120
Team box
MIL·HOU
6
hits
12
0
home runs
2
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
181
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jeremy PenaHOU3-5312
Christian WalkerHOU1-4213
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3002
Jake MeyersHOU2-4101
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4100
Taylor TrammellHOU1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL4.16504
Peter Lambert (W)HOU5.05233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +7
MIL +7
123456789
largest lead: HOU 7 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, HOU 42% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.8 HOU
Expected total
8.9
BrewersThe matchupAstros
−140Our fair odds+140
5.1Expected runs3.8
+0.35Power rating−0.05
4.9Runs / game4.4
3.4Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game8.2
0.72Home runs / game1.31
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
34−20Season record26−33
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14058%−11653.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+14042%−10350.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byHOU wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·HOU
May 29 at HOU
last game
May 29 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
MIL·HOU
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.9
runs / game
4.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
5.1
34−20
season record
26−33
19−11
home record
12−15
15−9
away record
14−18
W4
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.2
0.72
home runs / game
1.31
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.48
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

MIL · HOU · 66 days
Milwaukee BrewersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
May 29at HOUMIL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at MILHOU 9 − 1
May 6, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 5, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 19, 2024at HOUHOU 9 − 4
May 18, 2024at HOUMIL 4 − 2
May 17, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 4
May 24, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 0
May 23, 2023at MILMIL 6 − 0
May 22, 2023at MILHOU 12 − 2

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 29at HOU5 − 4W
May 27vs STL2 − 1W
May 26vs STL6 − 0W
May 25vs STL5 − 1W
May 24vs LAD1 − 5L
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L
May 25at TEX9 − 0W
May 24at CHC8 − 5W
May 23at CHC3 − 0W
May 22at CHC4 − 2W
May 20at MIN1 − 4L
May 19at MIN2 − 1W