bayesRatings

Brewers at Astros

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final MIL 2 – HOU 0
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000200000240
HOU000000000030
Team box
MIL·HOU
4
hits
3
1
home runs
0
2
walks
0
7
strikeouts
11
113
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-4112
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4100
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3000
Jake MeyersHOU1-3000
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4000
David HamiltonMIL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL7.03008
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00002
Tatsuya Imai (L)HOU6.03225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · MIL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 57%, HOU 43% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.9
BrewersThe matchupAstros
−132Our fair odds+132
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.32Power rating−0.03
4.8Runs / game4.5
3.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.71Home runs / game1.32
4.2Walks drawn / game3.3
34−21Season record27−33
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi66.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13257%−19966.6%———
HOUHouston Astros+13243%+15938.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byHOU wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 30 Kstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·HOU
May 30 at HOU
last game
May 30 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
MIL·HOU
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.8
runs / game
4.5
3.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
34−21
season record
27−33
19−11
home record
13−15
15−10
away record
14−18
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.71
home runs / game
1.32
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.47
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

MIL · HOU · 67 days
Milwaukee BrewersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
May 30at HOUHOU 9 − 2
May 29at HOUMIL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at MILHOU 9 − 1
May 6, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 5, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 19, 2024at HOUHOU 9 − 4
May 18, 2024at HOUMIL 4 − 2
May 17, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 4
May 24, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 0
May 23, 2023at MILMIL 6 − 0

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 30at HOU2 − 9L
May 29at HOU5 − 4W
May 27vs STL2 − 1W
May 26vs STL6 − 0W
May 25vs STL5 − 1W
May 24vs LAD1 − 5L
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L
May 25at TEX9 − 0W
May 24at CHC8 − 5W
May 23at CHC3 − 0W
May 22at CHC4 − 2W
May 20at MIN1 − 4L