bayesRatings

Athletics at Astros

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATH 1 – HOU 5
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000001000150
HOU30200000560
Team box
ATH·HOU
5
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
4
10
strikeouts
13
139
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU1-2114
Brent RookerATH1-4111
Henry BolteATH3-4000
Christian WalkerHOU1-3101
Zack GelofATH1-4000
Jose AltuveHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Perkins (L)ATH4.05526
Peter Lambert (W)HOU5.15144

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 5 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.7 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AthleticsThe matchupAstros
+110Our fair odds−110
4.5Expected runs4.7
−0.08Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game5.1
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.11Home runs / game1.28
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
30−32Season record28−36
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11048%−11252.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11052%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·HOU
Jun 4 at CHC
last game
Jun 4 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
ATH·HOU
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
30−32
season record
28−36
11−17
home record
14−18
19−15
away record
14−18
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.11
home runs / game
1.28
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.39
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

ATH · HOU · 72 days
AthleticsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 2−8
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at HOUATH 7 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at HOUATH 15 − 3
Jul 24, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 2

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L
May 25at TEX9 − 0W