bayesRatings

Athletics at Cubs

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ATH 6 – CHC 7
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000103200670
CHC0000012047110
Team box
ATH·CHC
7
hits
11
4
home runs
2
3
walks
1
8
strikeouts
10
147
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH2-4223
Ian HappCHC2-4213
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4112
Jonah HeimATH1-4111
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4111
Henry BolteATH2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. GinnATH6.02118
Joel Kuhnel (L)ATH0.25400
Shota ImanagaCHC6.06615
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC1.20003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · ATH 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
8.9
AthleticsThe matchupCubs
+128Our fair odds−128
4.0Expected runs4.9
−0.08Power rating+0.11
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.07Home runs / game1.11
3.8Walks drawn / game4.4
30−31Season record32−30
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12844%+12444.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12856%−14859.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 11.49 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CHC
Jun 3 at CHC
last game
Jun 3 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
ATH·CHC
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
30−31
season record
32−30
11−17
home record
18−13
19−14
away record
14−17
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.07
home runs / game
1.11
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.39
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

ATH · CHC · 71 days
AthleticsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Jun 3at CHCATH 5 − 4
Jun 2at CHCATH 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at ATHCHC 10 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at ATHCHC 7 − 4
Mar 31, 2025at ATHCHC 18 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at CHCATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2024at CHCATH 4 − 3
Sep 16, 2024at CHCCHC 9 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at ATHCHC 12 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at ATHCHC 4 − 0

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L

CHC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 3vs ATH4 − 5L
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L