bayesRatings

Athletics at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ATH 5 – CHC 4
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATH11000002015100
CHC0121000000490
Team box
ATH·CHC
10
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
9
173
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-5112
Tyler SoderstromATH2-5002
Colby ThomasATH1-1111
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-4111
Alika WilliamsATH1-4101
Nick KurtzATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey SpringsATH3.27413
Hogan Harris (W)ATH1.00002
Justin Sterner (S)ATH1.00001
Colin ReaCHC5.14223
Ethan Roberts (L)CHC0.21000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
ATH +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHC 2 · ATH 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
8.9
AthleticsThe matchupCubs
+131Our fair odds−131
4.0Expected runs4.9
−0.09Power rating+0.12
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.07Home runs / game1.10
3.8Walks drawn / game4.4
29−31Season record32−29
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13143%+10947.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13157%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CHC
Jun 2 at CHC
last game
Jun 2 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
ATH·CHC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
29−31
season record
32−29
11−17
home record
18−12
18−14
away record
14−17
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.07
home runs / game
1.10
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ATH · CHC · 70 days
AthleticsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Jun 2at CHCATH 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at ATHCHC 10 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at ATHCHC 7 − 4
Mar 31, 2025at ATHCHC 18 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at CHCATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2024at CHCATH 4 − 3
Sep 16, 2024at CHCCHC 9 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at ATHCHC 12 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at ATHCHC 4 − 0
Apr 17, 2023at ATHCHC 10 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L

CHC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 2vs ATH1 − 2L
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L