bayesRatings

Pirates at Astros

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final PIT 5 – HOU 1
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100004000590
HOU000001000181
Team box
PIT·HOU
9
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
129
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4113
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4111
Taylor TrammellHOU2-4000
Jeremy PenaHOU2-4000
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4101
Oneil CruzPIT2-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (W)PIT5.04024
Carmen Mlodzinski (S)PIT4.04103
Kai-Wei Teng (L)HOU5.07421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · PIT 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.6 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupAstros
+103Our fair odds−103
4.6Expected runs4.4
−0.00Power rating−0.04
5.2Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game5.1
8.9Hits / game8.3
1.18Home runs / game1.29
4.0Walks drawn / game3.3
33−29Season record28−35
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10349%−10751.8%———
HOUHouston Astros−10351%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byHOU wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more38%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 8.56 ERA, 18 Kstarted
HOUKai-Wei Teng RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·HOU
Jun 3 at HOU
last game
Jun 3 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
PIT·HOU
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
33−29
season record
28−35
18−15
home record
14−17
15−14
away record
14−18
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
8.3
1.18
home runs / game
1.29
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.63
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

PIT · HOU · 71 days
Pittsburgh PiratesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jun 3at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Jun 2at HOUPIT 10 − 6
Jun 5, 2025at PITHOU 8 − 2
Jun 4, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at PITHOU 3 − 0
Jul 31, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2024at HOUPIT 6 − 2
Jul 29, 2024at HOUPIT 5 − 3
Apr 12, 2023at PITHOU 7 − 0
Apr 11, 2023at PITPIT 7 − 4

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 3at HOU9 − 11L
Jun 2at HOU10 − 6W
May 31vs MIN9 − 3W
May 30vs MIN10 − 9W
May 29vs MIN6 − 5W
May 28vs CHC2 − 7L
May 27vs CHC4 − 10L
May 26vs CHC12 − 1W
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W
May 24at TOR4 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L
May 25at TEX9 − 0W
May 24at CHC8 − 5W