bayesRatings

Athletics at Astros

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATH 5 – HOU 0
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH003110000581
HOU000000000041
Team box
ATH·HOU
8
hits
4
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
144
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brent RookerATH2-3112
Nick KurtzATH1-5112
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4000
Cam SmithHOU2-3000
Shea LangeliersATH1-5100
Zack GelofATH1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (W)ATH6.13033
Mike Burrows (L)HOU5.08423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
ATH +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · ATH 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.3
AthleticsThe matchupAstros
+115Our fair odds−115
4.5Expected runs4.9
−0.11Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.9Allowed / game5.0
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.09Home runs / game1.30
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
30−34Season record30−36
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11546%−10751.8%———
HOUHouston Astros−11554%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more40%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 2 starts: 12.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 10 Kstarted
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·HOU
Jun 6 at HOU
last game
Jun 6 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
ATH·HOU
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
30−34
season record
30−36
11−17
home record
16−18
19−17
away record
14−18
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.09
home runs / game
1.30
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.39
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

ATH · HOU · 74 days
AthleticsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Jun 6at HOUHOU 13 − 2
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at HOUATH 7 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 6at HOU2 − 13L
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W