bayesRatings

Astros at Angels

MLB · Monday, Jun 8 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final HOU 5 – LAA 4
← MLB / Jun 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
HOU0010020011580
LAA0300001000481
Team box
HOU·LAA
8
hits
8
0
home runs
1
6
walks
4
13
strikeouts
12
152
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian WalkerHOU2-4002
Trey ManciniLAA3-4101
Zach NetoLAA1-4111
Cam SmithHOU2-5001
Logan O'HoppeLAA1-4002
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer ArrighettiHOU6.04347
Josh Hader (W)HOU1.00003
Bryan Abreu (S)HOU1.01001
Grayson RodriguezLAA5.16226
Sam Aldegheri (L)LAA1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
HOU +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 3 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jun 8

Expected margin
HOU by 0.8
Expected score
HOU 5.3 – 4.5 LAA
Expected total
9.8
AstrosThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
5.3Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.25
4.6Runs / game4.4
5.0Allowed / game5.2
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.28Home runs / game1.15
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
30−37Season record25−41
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−11754%−13156.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%+10947.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.8
HOUHouston Astros−0.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.8 expected
Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byLAA wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more44%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAA
Jun 7 vs ATH
last game
Jun 7 at LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
HOU·LAA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.6
runs / game
4.4
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.2
30−37
season record
25−41
16−19
home record
13−18
14−18
away record
12−23
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.28
home runs / game
1.15
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.37
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

HOU · LAA · 75 days
Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at HOULAA 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at HOULAA 4 − 1

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L
May 31at TB2 − 5L
May 30at TB14 − 3W
May 29at TB5 − 8L
May 28at DET7 − 1W