bayesRatings

Angels at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final LAA 13 – LAD 5
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA02022060113151
LAD0010040005110
Team box
LAA·LAD
15
hits
11
2
home runs
2
6
walks
3
14
strikeouts
9
153
pitches thrown
204
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sebastian RiveroLAA5-5106
Dalton RushingLAD4-4113
Jo AdellLAA4-5412
Zach NetoLAA1-6113
Jose SiriLAA3-3202
Ryan WardLAD1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA6.08422
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD1.13222

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +8
LAA +8
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · LAA 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 32%, LAD 68% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
LAD by 2.3
Expected score
LAD 5.6 – 3.3 LAA
Expected total
8.9
AngelsThe matchupDodgers
+209Our fair odds−209
3.3Expected runs5.6
−0.28Power rating+0.41
4.3Runs / game5.2
5.2Allowed / game3.1
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.14Home runs / game1.35
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
24−41Season record42−23
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshi32.5%71.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+20932%+20832.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−20968%−25171.5%———
SpreadLAD by 2.3
LAALos Angeles Angels+2.3our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.3 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more56%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more45%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·LAD
Jun 6 at LAD
last game
Jun 6 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
LAA·LAD
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
4.3
runs / game
5.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.1
24−41
season record
42−23
13−18
home record
22−11
11−23
away record
20−12
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.35
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.62
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

LAA · LAD · 74 days
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Jun 6at LADLAD 9 − 2
Jun 5at LADLAD 1 − 0
May 17at LAALAD 10 − 1
May 16at LAALAD 15 − 2
May 15at LAALAD 6 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 4
May 17, 2025at LADLAA 11 − 9

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L
May 31at TB2 − 5L
May 30at TB14 − 3W
May 29at TB5 − 8L
May 28at DET7 − 1W
May 27at DET0 − 4L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 6vs LAA9 − 2W
Jun 5vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W