bayesRatings

Phillies at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final PHI 4 – LAD 3
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI010000030461
LAD010100100390
Team box
PHI·LAD
6
hits
9
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edmundo SosaPHI1-2112
Mookie BettsLAD3-4001
Alec BohmPHI1-4111
Alex CallLAD2-4101
Bryce HarperPHI1-2101
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI5.17226
Orion Kerkering (W)PHI1.02102
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00000
Roki SasakiLAD5.13117
Tanner Scott (L)LAD1.03300

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · PHI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 41%, LAD 59% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.7 PHI
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupDodgers
+145Our fair odds−145
3.7Expected runs4.7
+0.09Power rating+0.40
3.9Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game3.2
7.6Hits / game8.7
1.21Home runs / game1.40
2.9Walks drawn / game4.1
29−28Season record37−20
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+14541%+10548.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14559%−12655.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·LAD
May 29 at LAD
last game
May 29 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
PHI·LAD
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
3.9
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.2
29−28
season record
37−20
14−16
home record
19−10
15−12
away record
18−10
L1
streak
W6
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
8.7
1.21
home runs / game
1.40
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

PHI · LAD · 66 days
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
May 29at LADLAD 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at LADPHI 9 − 6
Sep 15, 2025at LADPHI 6 − 5
Apr 6, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at PHILAD 3 − 1

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L