bayesRatings

Guardians at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 12:35 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CLE 3 – PHI 1
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000011010390
PHI000000100161
Team box
CLE·PHI
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
2
walks
4
5
strikeouts
10
143
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis BazzanaCLE3-4111
Steven KwanCLE3-4001
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-4001
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4000
Bryson StottPHI2-4000
David FryCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE5.25026
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00001
Andrew Painter (L)PHI6.16223

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · CLE 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, PHI 51% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.1 – 3.9 CLE
Expected total
8.1
GuardiansThe matchupPhillies
+106Our fair odds−106
3.9Expected runs4.1
+0.10Power rating+0.08
4.2Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.4Hits / game7.8
1.00Home runs / game1.19
4.2Walks drawn / game3.0
31−23Season record26−26
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · PHI chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10649%−11653.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10651%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more37%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 20 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·PHI
May 23 at PHI
last game
May 23 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
CLE·PHI
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.2
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
31−23
season record
26−26
15−10
home record
14−15
16−13
away record
12−11
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
7.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.19
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.37
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · PHI · 60 days
Cleveland GuardiansPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
May 23at PHIPHI 3 − 0
May 22at PHICLE 1 − 0
May 11, 2025at CLEPHI 3 − 0
May 10, 2025at CLEPHI 7 − 1
May 9, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at PHICLE 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jul 26, 2024at PHICLE 3 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at CLEPHI 8 − 5
Jul 22, 2023at CLECLE 1 − 0

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 23at PHI0 − 3L
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L