bayesRatings

Guardians at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 3:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CLE 0 – PHI 3
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000030
PHI00020100370
Team box
CLE·PHI
3
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
6
10
strikeouts
9
152
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4200
Bryson StottPHI1-3002
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3000
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-3000
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4000
Travis BazzanaCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (L)CLE5.06315
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.02016
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, PHI 51% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.1 – 4.0 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupPhillies
+104Our fair odds−104
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.11Power rating+0.08
4.3Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game7.8
1.02Home runs / game1.22
4.3Walks drawn / game2.9
31−22Season record25−26
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · PHI chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10449%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10451%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·PHI
May 22 at PHI
last game
May 22 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
CLE·PHI
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
31−22
season record
25−26
15−10
home record
13−15
16−12
away record
12−11
W7
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
7.8
1.02
home runs / game
1.22
4.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.38
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

CLE · PHI · 59 days
Cleveland GuardiansPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
May 22at PHICLE 1 − 0
May 11, 2025at CLEPHI 3 − 0
May 10, 2025at CLEPHI 7 − 1
May 9, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at PHICLE 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jul 26, 2024at PHICLE 3 − 1
Jul 23, 2023at CLEPHI 8 − 5
Jul 22, 2023at CLECLE 1 − 0
Jul 21, 2023at CLECLE 6 − 5

CLE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W
May 15vs CIN6 − 7L
May 13vs LAA4 − 2W
May 12vs LAA3 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W