bayesRatings

Rockies at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final COL 3 – LAD 5
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000200100370
LAD00100040580
Team box
COL·LAD
7
hits
8
1
home runs
0
1
walks
3
12
strikeouts
3
128
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-3112
Willi CastroCOL2-4001
Enrique HernandezLAD2-2001
Andy PagesLAD2-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4101
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner GordonCOL5.06113
Brennan Bernardino (L)COL0.21200
Emmet SheehanLAD6.05218
Kyle Hurt (W)LAD1.01101
Blake Treinen (S)LAD0.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · COL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 27%, LAD 73% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
LAD by 3.0
Expected score
LAD 6.1 – 3.1 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupDodgers
+276Our fair odds−276
3.1Expected runs6.1
−0.59Power rating+0.37
4.1Runs / game5.2
5.2Allowed / game3.2
8.1Hits / game8.6
0.83Home runs / game1.28
2.9Walks drawn / game4.2
20−34Season record33−20
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair26.6%73.4%
Kalshi27.3%76.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+27627%+26627.3%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−27673%−32276.3%———
SpreadLAD by 3.0
COLColorado Rockies+3our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 3.0 expected
Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%
← COL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more61%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more51%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·LAD
May 24 at ARI
last game
May 24 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
COL·LAD
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.1
runs / game
5.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.2
20−34
season record
33−20
10−15
home record
15−10
10−19
away record
18−10
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.6
0.83
home runs / game
1.28
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.54
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

COL · LAD · 61 days
Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at COLLAD 11 − 4

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 24at ARI1 − 9L
May 23at ARI4 − 5L
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W