bayesRatings

Phillies at Padres

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 5:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final PHI 3 – SD 0
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI100000200331
SD000000000050
Team box
PHI·SD
3
hits
5
2
home runs
0
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
10
157
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3211
Brandon MarshPHI1-4112
Ty FranceSD2-4000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-2000
Miguel AndujarSD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus Luzardo (W)PHI6.04026
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01001
Griffin Canning (L)SD6.23335

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · PHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 47%, SD 53% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.7 PHI
Expected total
7.7
PhilliesThe matchupPadres
+112Our fair odds−112
3.7Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game7.2
1.17Home runs / game1.02
3.0Walks drawn / game3.3
26−27Season record31−21
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SD chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11247%−11653.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11253%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.3our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more37%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 12.27 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SD
May 24 vs CLE
last game
May 24 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
PHI·SD
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
26−27
season record
31−21
14−16
home record
16−13
12−11
away record
15−8
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.2
1.17
home runs / game
1.02
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.47
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

PHI · SD · 61 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
Jul 13, 2025at SDPHI 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at PHISD 6 − 4
Jun 30, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 0
Jun 19, 2024at PHISD 5 − 2
Jun 18, 2024at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Jun 17, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 2
Apr 28, 2024at SDPHI 8 − 6

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L