bayesRatings

Rockies at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final COL 6 – LAD 15
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0100000056120
LAD2024250015171
Team box
COL·LAD
12
hits
17
3
home runs
5
2
walks
1
7
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mookie BettsLAD3-5225
Andy PagesLAD4-5313
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4113
Will SmithLAD2-4212
Enrique HernandezLAD2-2211
Brett SullivanCOL1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL4.09804
Eric Lauer (W)LAD6.04114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +14
COL +14
123456789
largest lead: LAD 14 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 27%, LAD 73% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
LAD by 2.9
Expected score
LAD 6.0 – 3.1 COL
Expected total
9.1
RockiesThe matchupDodgers
+273Our fair odds−273
3.1Expected runs6.0
−0.59Power rating+0.36
4.0Runs / game5.2
5.2Allowed / game3.2
8.1Hits / game8.6
0.84Home runs / game1.26
2.8Walks drawn / game4.2
20−35Season record34−20
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair26.8%73.2%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+27327%+18934.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−27373%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 2.9
COLColorado Rockies+2.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%
← COL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more61%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more50%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 10.80 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·LAD
May 25 at LAD
last game
May 25 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
COL·LAD
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
4.0
runs / game
5.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.2
20−35
season record
34−20
10−15
home record
16−10
10−20
away record
18−10
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.6
0.84
home runs / game
1.26
2.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.53
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

COL · LAD · 62 days
Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
May 25at LADLAD 5 − 3
Apr 20at COLLAD 12 − 3
Apr 19at COLCOL 9 − 6
Apr 18at COLCOL 4 − 3
Apr 17at COLLAD 7 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 0
Sep 9, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at COLLAD 9 − 5
Aug 20, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 3

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 25at LAD3 − 5L
May 24at ARI1 − 9L
May 23at ARI4 − 5L
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W