bayesRatings

Phillies at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final PHI 4 – SD 3
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI112000000490
SD000200010350
Team box
PHI·SD
9
hits
5
3
home runs
2
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
11
126
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3111
Trea TurnerPHI2-5111
Manny MachadoSD1-3112
Bryce HarperPHI1-2211
Ramon LaureanoSD1-3111
Brandon MarshPHI2-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI6.03205
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00002
Randy Vasquez (L)SD5.28412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · PHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 48%, SD 52% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
7.7
PhilliesThe matchupPadres
+108Our fair odds−108
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.08Power rating+0.10
4.0Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game3.9
7.6Hits / game7.1
1.19Home runs / game1.00
3.0Walks drawn / game3.3
27−27Season record31−22
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SD chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10848%−10751.8%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10852%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.2our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SD
May 25 at SD
last game
May 25 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
PHI·SD
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.0
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
27−27
season record
31−22
14−16
home record
16−14
13−11
away record
15−8
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.1
1.19
home runs / game
1.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.48
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

PHI · SD · 62 days
Philadelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
May 25at SDPHI 3 − 0
Jul 13, 2025at SDPHI 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at PHISD 6 − 4
Jun 30, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 0
Jun 19, 2024at PHISD 5 − 2
Jun 18, 2024at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Jun 17, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 2

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 25vs PHI0 − 3L
May 24vs ATH2 − 5L
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W