bayesRatings

Phillies at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 9:15 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final PHI 2 – LAD 4
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000001010230
LAD11101000461
Team box
PHI·LAD
3
hits
6
1
home runs
4
0
walks
1
11
strikeouts
5
115
pitches thrown
116
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-4111
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4111
Max MuncyLAD1-3111
Will SmithLAD1-3111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-4111
Steward BerroaPHI1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (L)PHI6.05414
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD7.01109
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
PHI +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 41%, LAD 59% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupDodgers
+141Our fair odds−141
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.10Power rating+0.39
4.0Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game3.2
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.21Home runs / game1.36
3.0Walks drawn / game4.1
29−27Season record36−20
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+14141%−10350.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14159%−11653.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 0.44 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 6.41 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·LAD
May 27 at SD
last game
May 27 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
PHI·LAD
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
4.0
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.2
29−27
season record
36−20
14−16
home record
18−10
15−11
away record
18−10
W3
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.21
home runs / game
1.36
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.46
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

PHI · LAD · 65 days
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at LADPHI 9 − 6
Sep 15, 2025at LADPHI 6 − 5
Apr 6, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at PHILAD 3 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W