bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 7 – ARI 0
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0230002007161
ARI000000000021
Team box
LAD·ARI
16
hits
2
1
home runs
0
5
walks
2
6
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
189
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD3-5112
Alex FreelandLAD3-4002
Freddie FreemanLAD2-6102
Max MuncyLAD2-5101
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-4100
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shohei Ohtani (W)LAD6.02016
Zac Gallen (L)ARI5.09421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
LAD +7
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · LAD 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, ARI 43% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 5.4 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.6
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−132Our fair odds+132
5.4Expected runs4.2
+0.39Power rating+0.04
5.3Runs / game4.5
3.2Allowed / game4.4
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.38Home runs / game0.88
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
39−22Season record32−28
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair57.0%43.0%
Kalshi68.5%35.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13257%−21868.5%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13243%+18135.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
Jun 2 at ARI
last game
Jun 2 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.3
runs / game
4.5
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
39−22
season record
32−28
20−11
home record
19−11
19−11
away record
13−17
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.38
home runs / game
0.88
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.34
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 70 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W