bayesRatings

Phillies at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final PHI 1 – LAD 9
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000001150
LAD011221119131
Team box
PHI·LAD
5
hits
13
1
home runs
3
4
walks
4
12
strikeouts
7
170
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex FreelandLAD2-3212
Max MuncyLAD2-4211
Ryan WardLAD1-2111
Bryson StottPHI1-4111
Freddie FreemanLAD1-3102
Kyle TuckerLAD2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Painter (L)PHI3.17413
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD5.140210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +9
PHI +9
123456789
largest lead: LAD 9 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 41%, LAD 59% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.7 PHI
Expected total
8.3
PhilliesThe matchupDodgers
+142Our fair odds−142
3.7Expected runs4.7
+0.10Power rating+0.39
3.9Runs / game5.3
4.3Allowed / game3.2
7.5Hits / game8.7
1.22Home runs / game1.38
2.9Walks drawn / game4.0
30−28Season record37−21
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshi34.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+14241%+18934.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14259%−23970.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·LAD
May 30 at LAD
last game
May 30 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
PHI·LAD
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
3.9
runs / game
5.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.2
30−28
season record
37−21
14−16
home record
19−11
16−12
away record
18−10
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.5
hits / game
8.7
1.22
home runs / game
1.38
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.47
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

PHI · LAD · 67 days
Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
May 30at LADPHI 4 − 3
May 29at LADLAD 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at LADPHI 9 − 6
Sep 15, 2025at LADPHI 6 − 5
Apr 6, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 7

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 30at LAD4 − 3W
May 29at LAD2 − 4L
May 27at SD3 − 0W
May 26at SD4 − 3W
May 25at SD3 − 0W
May 24vs CLE1 − 3L
May 23vs CLE3 − 0W
May 22vs CLE0 − 1L
May 20vs CIN4 − 9L
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W