bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 1 – ARI 4
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001000000160
ARI00000112450
Team box
LAD·ARI
6
hits
5
0
home runs
3
1
walks
0
5
strikeouts
4
113
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI1-4112
Tommy TroyARI2-3211
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3111
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-4100
Corbin CarrollARI1-4000
Freddie FreemanLAD0-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD6.13203
Eduardo RodriguezARI6.05113
Taylor Clarke (W)ARI1.00002
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 3 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, ARI 43% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
LAD by 1.4
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 4.1 ARI
Expected total
9.7
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−133Our fair odds+133
5.5Expected runs4.1
+0.40Power rating+0.03
5.3Runs / game4.6
3.1Allowed / game4.4
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.41Home runs / game0.84
4.0Walks drawn / game3.1
38−21Season record31−27
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair57.2%42.8%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13357%−16862.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13343%+14041.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.4 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
May 31 vs PHI
last game
May 31 at SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.3
runs / game
4.6
3.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
38−21
season record
31−27
20−11
home record
18−10
18−10
away record
13−17
W1
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.41
home runs / game
0.84
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.36
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 68 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at LADARI 3 − 0
May 21, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W
May 22vs COL2 − 3L
May 21vs COL2 − 1W