bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 6 – ARI 5
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD2200002006100
ARI0010103005110
Team box
LAD·ARI
10
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
6
10
strikeouts
4
163
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD3-5112
Corbin CarrollARI2-5111
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4202
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4102
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-5000
Mookie BettsLAD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric LauerLAD4.25211
Blake Treinen (W)LAD0.10010
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.01001
Michael Soroka (L)ARI6.06416

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · LAD 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 57%, ARI 43% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
LAD by 1.2
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.5
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−130Our fair odds+130
5.3Expected runs4.2
+0.38Power rating+0.04
5.2Runs / game4.5
3.1Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.38Home runs / game0.88
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
38−22Season record32−27
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair56.6%43.4%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13057%−12154.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13043%−10350.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more47%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 7 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
Jun 1 at ARI
last game
Jun 1 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.5
3.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
38−22
season record
32−27
20−11
home record
19−10
18−11
away record
13−17
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.38
home runs / game
0.88
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.35
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 69 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at LADARI 3 − 0

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W
May 22vs COL2 − 3L