bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 2 – ARI 3
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000020000260
ARI0000000213110
Team box
LAD·ARI
6
hits
11
0
home runs
2
2
walks
1
5
strikeouts
8
135
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI3-4111
Ketel MarteARI1-5111
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4001
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-4000
Ryan WardLAD1-2101
Dalton RushingLAD1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin WrobleskiLAD6.06004
Tanner Scott (L)LAD0.11101
Ryne NelsonARI7.05223
Paul Sewald (W)ARI1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · LAD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 58%, ARI 42% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
LAD by 1.4
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 4.1 ARI
Expected total
9.6
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−136Our fair odds+136
5.5Expected runs4.1
+0.40Power rating+0.03
5.3Runs / game4.5
3.1Allowed / game4.4
8.9Hits / game8.0
1.37Home runs / game0.87
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
40−22Season record32−29
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13658%−13757.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13642%+11446.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.4 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
Jun 3 at ARI
last game
Jun 3 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.3
runs / game
4.5
3.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
40−22
season record
32−29
20−11
home record
19−12
20−11
away record
13−17
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
8.0
1.37
home runs / game
0.87
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.35
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 71 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 2−8
Jun 3at ARILAD 7 − 0
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W
May 24at MIL5 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 3vs LAD0 − 7L
Jun 2vs LAD5 − 6L
Jun 1vs LAD4 − 1W
May 31at SEA2 − 3L
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W