bayesRatings

Rockies at Angels

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final COL 9 – LAA 8
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL1010100519104
LAA0050100208101
Team box
COL·LAA
10
hits
10
2
home runs
1
10
walks
4
11
strikeouts
5
139
pitches thrown
196
4
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose SiriLAA1-5114
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-5113
Jorge SolerLAA3-5102
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4211
Troy JohnstonCOL2-5001
Sterlin ThompsonCOL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle FreelandCOL5.27514
Antonio Senzatela (W)COL1.22010
Jose SorianoLAA4.23277
Kirby Yates (L)LAA1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · COL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 40%, LAA 60% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
LAA by 1.0
Expected score
LAA 5.5 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
10.0
RockiesThe matchupAngels
+151Our fair odds−151
4.5Expected runs5.5
−0.60Power rating−0.26
4.2Runs / game4.2
5.6Allowed / game5.1
8.3Hits / game7.7
0.90Home runs / game1.18
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
22−38Season record23−37
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+15140%+15938.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels−15160%−19966.6%———
SpreadLAA by 1.0
COLColorado Rockies+1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Angels by 1.0 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byLAA wins by →
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 13.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.82 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·LAA
May 31 vs SF
last game
May 31 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
COL·LAA
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
4.2
runs / game
4.2
5.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
22−38
season record
23−37
12−16
home record
12−16
10−22
away record
11−21
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.7
0.90
home runs / game
1.18
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.55
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

COL · LAA · 68 days
Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Sep 21, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at COLLAA 3 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at COLCOL 7 − 6
Aug 1, 2024at LAACOL 5 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at LAACOL 2 − 1
Jul 30, 2024at LAALAA 10 − 7
Jun 25, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 3
Jun 24, 2023at COLLAA 25 − 1
Jun 23, 2023at COLCOL 7 − 4
Jul 28, 2021at LAALAA 8 − 7

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 31vs SF6 − 19L
May 30vs SF8 − 3W
May 29vs SF8 − 6W
May 27at LAD1 − 4L
May 26at LAD6 − 15L
May 25at LAD3 − 5L
May 24at ARI1 − 9L
May 23at ARI4 − 5L
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 31at TB2 − 5L
May 30at TB14 − 3W
May 29at TB5 − 8L
May 28at DET7 − 1W
May 27at DET0 − 4L
May 26at DET10 − 6W
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L