bayesRatings

Giants at Rockies

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SF 6 – COL 8
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0012000126122
COL0100000258130
Team box
SF·COL
12
hits
13
0
home runs
3
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
8
159
pitches thrown
159
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4324
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-4113
Jung Hoo LeeSF4-5200
Rafael DeversSF2-4101
Willi CastroCOL2-5100
Tyler FreemanCOL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan WebbSF4.13135
Caleb Kilian (L)SF0.25501
Michael LorenzenCOL3.25322
Juan Mejia (W)COL1.03200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · SF 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 61%, COL 39% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
SF by 1.4
Expected score
SF 5.9 – 4.5 COL
Expected total
10.3
GiantsThe matchupRockies
−158Our fair odds+158
5.9Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating−0.61
3.6Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game5.4
8.4Hits / game8.1
0.88Home runs / game0.86
2.1Walks drawn / game2.8
22−34Season record20−37
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.3%38.7%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−15861%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15839%+12444.7%———
SpreadSF by 1.4
SFSan Francisco Giants−1.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.4 expected
San Francisco Giants by 16 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCOL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more48%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·COL
May 27 vs ARI
last game
May 27 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
SF·COL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.61
3.6
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.4
22−34
season record
20−37
12−16
home record
10−15
10−18
away record
10−22
L3
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
8.1
0.88
home runs / game
0.86
2.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.61
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

SF · COL · 65 days
San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SFSF 6 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at COLSF 10 − 8
Sep 2, 2025at COLSF 7 − 4
Sep 1, 2025at COLSF 8 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at COLSF 10 − 7
Jun 10, 2025at COLSF 6 − 5
May 4, 2025at SFSF 9 − 3

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 27vs ARI2 − 3L
May 26vs ARI5 − 7L
May 25vs ARI2 − 6L
May 24vs CHW8 − 5W
May 23vs CHW10 − 3W
May 22vs CHW4 − 9L
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L
May 18at ARI2 − 12L
May 17at ATH10 − 1W

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
May 27at LAD1 − 4L
May 26at LAD6 − 15L
May 25at LAD3 − 5L
May 24at ARI1 − 9L
May 23at ARI4 − 5L
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W