bayesRatings

Giants at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SF 19 – COL 6
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF11027123219253
COL0102201006103
Team box
SF·COL
25
hits
10
3
home runs
0
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
10
180
pitches thrown
216
3
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF3-5114
Jung Hoo LeeSF5-6102
Bryce EldridgeSF4-6411
Rafael DeversSF4-6401
Casey SchmittSF3-6102
Jesus RodriguezSF1-1112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie RaySF4.05126
Caleb Kilian (W)SF1.00012
Tanner Gordon (L)COL3.06412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +13
SF +13
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · SF 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 59%, COL 41% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
SF by 1.1
Expected score
SF 5.7 – 4.6 COL
Expected total
10.3
GiantsThe matchupRockies
−147Our fair odds+147
5.7Expected runs4.6
−0.12Power rating−0.57
3.7Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game5.3
8.4Hits / game8.3
0.86Home runs / game0.92
2.1Walks drawn / game2.9
22−36Season record22−37
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−14759%−11252.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14741%−10751.8%———
SpreadSF by 1.1
SFSan Francisco Giants−1.1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.1 expected
San Francisco Giants by 16 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%
← SF wins byCOL wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more46%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more36%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 11.08 ERA, 6 Kstarted
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·COL
May 30 at COL
last game
May 30 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
SF·COL
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
3.7
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.3
22−36
season record
22−37
12−16
home record
12−15
10−20
away record
10−22
L5
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.3
0.86
home runs / game
0.92
2.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.62
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

SF · COL · 67 days
San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 29at COLCOL 8 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SFSF 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SFSF 6 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at COLSF 10 − 8
Sep 2, 2025at COLSF 7 − 4
Sep 1, 2025at COLSF 8 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at COLSF 10 − 7

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
May 30at COL3 − 8L
May 29at COL6 − 8L
May 27vs ARI2 − 3L
May 26vs ARI5 − 7L
May 25vs ARI2 − 6L
May 24vs CHW8 − 5W
May 23vs CHW10 − 3W
May 22vs CHW4 − 9L
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 30vs SF8 − 3W
May 29vs SF8 − 6W
May 27at LAD1 − 4L
May 26at LAD6 − 15L
May 25at LAD3 − 5L
May 24at ARI1 − 9L
May 23at ARI4 − 5L
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L