bayesRatings

Angels at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final LAA 0 – LAD 1
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000000030
LAD000000001130
Team box
LAA·LAD
3
hits
3
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
14
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-3111
Jo AdellLAA1-4000
Nick MadrigalLAA1-3000
Zach NetoLAA1-3000
Andy PagesLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA6.02026
Kirby Yates (L)LAA0.01100
Roki SasakiLAD7.020210
Blake Treinen (W)LAD0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 33%, LAD 67% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
LAD by 2.2
Expected score
LAD 5.6 – 3.4 LAA
Expected total
9.0
AngelsThe matchupDodgers
+200Our fair odds−200
3.4Expected runs5.6
−0.26Power rating+0.38
4.4Runs / game5.2
5.2Allowed / game3.1
7.8Hits / game8.8
1.16Home runs / game1.35
3.5Walks drawn / game4.0
24−39Season record40−23
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+20033%+16637.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−20067%−19966.6%———
SpreadLAD by 2.2
LAALos Angeles Angels+2.2our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.2 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more55%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more44%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.557%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 29 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·LAD
Jun 3 vs COL
last game
Jun 4 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
LAA·LAD
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.4
runs / game
5.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.1
24−39
season record
40−23
13−18
home record
20−11
11−21
away record
20−12
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
8.8
1.16
home runs / game
1.35
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.60
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

LAA · LAD · 72 days
Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 3−7
May 17at LAALAD 10 − 1
May 16at LAALAD 15 − 2
May 15at LAALAD 6 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 4
May 17, 2025at LADLAA 11 − 9
May 16, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at LAALAA 10 − 1

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L
May 31at TB2 − 5L
May 30at TB14 − 3W
May 29at TB5 − 8L
May 28at DET7 − 1W
May 27at DET0 − 4L
May 26at DET10 − 6W
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 4at ARI2 − 3L
Jun 3at ARI7 − 0W
Jun 2at ARI6 − 5W
Jun 1at ARI1 − 4L
May 31vs PHI9 − 1W
May 30vs PHI3 − 4L
May 29vs PHI4 − 2W
May 27vs COL4 − 1W
May 26vs COL15 − 6W
May 25vs COL5 − 3W