bayesRatings

Astros at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final HOU 2 – LAA 3
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
HOU0000010100240
LAA1000100001370
Team box
HOU·LAA
4
hits
7
2
home runs
2
1
walks
2
13
strikeouts
7
125
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-2111
Shay WhitcombHOU1-4111
Cam SmithHOU1-4111
Mike TroutLAA1-3111
Jose SiriLAA1-3001
Christian WalkerHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter LambertHOU6.15206
Bryan Abreu (L)HOU0.02000
Reid DetmersLAA7.01109
Ryan Zeferjahn (W)LAA1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
HOU +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 2 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 53%, LAA 47% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
HOU by 0.6
Expected score
HOU 5.2 – 4.6 LAA
Expected total
9.8
AstrosThe matchupAngels
−114Our fair odds+114
5.2Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating−0.23
4.5Runs / game4.5
5.1Allowed / game5.1
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.25Home runs / game1.13
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
31−38Season record26−42
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−11453%+10149.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11447%−12154.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.6
HOUHouston Astros−0.6our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.6 expected
Houston Astros by 15 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byLAA wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more42%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAA
Jun 9 at LAA
last game
Jun 9 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
HOU·LAA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.5
runs / game
4.5
5.1
runs allowed / game
5.1
31−38
season record
26−42
16−19
home record
14−19
15−19
away record
12−23
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.25
home runs / game
1.13
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.41
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

HOU · LAA · 77 days
Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 3

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 9vs HOU10 − 1W
Jun 8vs HOU4 − 5L
Jun 7at LAD13 − 5W
Jun 6at LAD2 − 9L
Jun 5at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 3vs COL11 − 4W
Jun 2vs COL2 − 8L
Jun 1vs COL8 − 9L
May 31at TB2 − 5L
May 30at TB14 − 3W