bayesRatings

Rangers at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final TEX 4 – KC 2
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX1110010004110
KC000200000260
Team box
TEX·KC
11
hits
6
1
home runs
0
1
walks
3
6
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corey SeagerTEX2-4211
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4001
Elias DiazTEX2-4001
Kameron MisnerKC1-2001
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4100
Jake BurgerTEX2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kumar RockerTEX4.25223
Robby Ahlstrom (W)TEX1.11001
Jacob Latz (S)TEX2.00003
Michael Wacha (L)KC7.09412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · TEX 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 51%, KC 49% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
7.8
RangersThe matchupRoyals
−104Our fair odds+104
4.0Expected runs3.8
+0.02Power rating−0.07
4.0Runs / game3.9
3.8Allowed / game4.6
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.00Home runs / game0.93
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
33−34Season record28−40
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10451%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10449%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 18%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byKC wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 6.11 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·KC
Jun 10 at KC
last game
Jun 10 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
TEX·KC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.0
runs / game
3.9
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
33−34
season record
28−40
17−14
home record
16−18
16−20
away record
12−22
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.00
home runs / game
0.93
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.46
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TEX · KC · 78 days
Texas RangersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jun 10at KCTEX 6 − 4
Jun 9at KCKC 5 − 3
May 31at TEXTEX 6 − 3
May 30at TEXTEX 7 − 6
May 29at TEXTEX 9 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at KCKC 6 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at KCTEX 6 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at KCKC 5 − 2
Aug 18, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at TEXKC 4 − 1

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 10at KC6 − 4W
Jun 9at KC3 − 5L
Jun 7vs CLE10 − 0W
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 7at MIN6 − 5W
Jun 6at MIN3 − 2W
Jun 5at MIN3 − 5L
Jun 4at MIN8 − 6W
Jun 3at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 2at CIN3 − 4L
Jun 1at CIN9 − 2W
May 31at TEX3 − 6L