bayesRatings

Rangers at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final TEX 3 – STL 5
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX001000200361
STL102011005111
Team box
TEX·STL
6
hits
11
0
home runs
0
4
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
144
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4003
Nelson VelazquezSTL2-3101
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4300
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-4001
Joc PedersonTEX1-5002
Josh JungTEX1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX4.29435
Andre Pallante (W)STL5.23125
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 4 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, STL 50% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.2
RangersThe matchupCardinals
+102Our fair odds−102
4.3Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating−0.03
4.0Runs / game4.3
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.0
0.98Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.3
30−31Season record31−28
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · STL chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10250%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10250%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySTL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.02 ERA, 12 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·STL
Jun 2 at STL
last game
Jun 2 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
TEX·STL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
30−31
season record
31−28
15−13
home record
15−16
15−18
away record
16−12
W5
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.0
0.98
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.46
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

TEX · STL · 70 days
Texas RangersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Jun 2at STLTEX 7 − 4
Jun 1at STLTEX 2 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
May 31, 2025at TEXSTL 2 − 0
May 30, 2025at TEXTEX 11 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at STLSTL 10 − 1
Jul 30, 2024at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 29, 2024at STLTEX 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2023at TEXSTL 1 − 0
Jun 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 4

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 2vs TEX4 − 7L
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W