bayesRatings

Rangers at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final TEX 7 – STL 4
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000021103790
STL0101002004130
Team box
TEX·STL
9
hits
13
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
15
strikeouts
10
131
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joc PedersonTEX3-4102
Nolan GormanSTL1-3111
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5001
Jimmy CrooksSTL2-4001
Kyle HigashiokaTEX3-4100
Josh JungTEX1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan EovaldiTEX6.011417
Cal Quantrill (W)TEX0.10000
Jakob Junis (S)TEX1.01001
Dustin MaySTL5.25329
Riley O'Brien (L)STL1.03312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · TEX 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 49%, STL 51% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.1
RangersThe matchupCardinals
+104Our fair odds−104
4.2Expected runs3.9
+0.01Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.3
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.3
29−31Season record31−27
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · STL chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10449%−11252.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10451%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySTL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 3.43 ERA, 20 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·STL
Jun 1 at STL
last game
Jun 1 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
TEX·STL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
29−31
season record
31−27
15−13
home record
15−15
14−18
away record
16−12
W4
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.47
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TEX · STL · 69 days
Texas RangersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Jun 1at STLTEX 2 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
May 31, 2025at TEXSTL 2 − 0
May 30, 2025at TEXTEX 11 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at STLSTL 10 − 1
Jul 30, 2024at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 29, 2024at STLTEX 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2023at TEXSTL 1 − 0
Jun 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Jun 5, 2023at TEXTEX 4 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 1vs TEX1 − 2L
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L