bayesRatings

Rangers at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final TEX 2 – STL 1
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000110000281
STL000001000151
Team box
TEX·STL
8
hits
5
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
5
strikeouts
14
144
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-4001
Masyn WinnSTL1-4111
Joc PedersonTEX1-3001
Nicky LopezTEX2-4000
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4000
Jimmy CrooksSTL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX5.04018
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00002
Michael McGreevy (L)STL6.05221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · TEX 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 49%, STL 51% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.1
RangersThe matchupCardinals
+106Our fair odds−106
4.2Expected runs3.9
+0.00Power rating−0.01
4.0Runs / game4.3
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.0
1.02Home runs / game1.11
3.5Walks drawn / game3.3
28−31Season record31−26
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10649%−12655.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10651%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins bySTL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·STL
May 31 vs KC
last game
May 31 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
TEX·STL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
28−31
season record
31−26
15−13
home record
15−14
13−18
away record
16−12
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.0
1.02
home runs / game
1.11
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.46
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

TEX · STL · 68 days
Texas RangersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 4−5
Jun 1, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 1
May 31, 2025at TEXSTL 2 − 0
May 30, 2025at TEXTEX 11 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at STLSTL 10 − 1
Jul 30, 2024at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 29, 2024at STLTEX 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2023at TEXSTL 1 − 0
Jun 6, 2023at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Jun 5, 2023at TEXTEX 4 − 3

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 31vs CHC5 − 1W
May 30vs CHC1 − 6L
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L