bayesRatings

Guardians at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CLE 0 – TEX 10
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000060
TEX2041010210160
Team box
CLE·TEX
6
hits
16
0
home runs
4
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
153
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel DuranTEX4-5103
Josh JungTEX2-4311
Justin FoscueTEX1-4212
Jake BurgerTEX3-4001
Michael HelmanTEX1-4111
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.09727
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX6.03026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +10
CLE +10
123456789
largest lead: TEX 10 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 3.8 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.3
GuardiansThe matchupRangers
−101Our fair odds+101
3.5Expected runs3.8
+0.07Power rating+0.01
4.1Runs / game3.9
4.0Allowed / game3.9
7.6Hits / game7.6
0.95Home runs / game0.97
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
37−29Season record31−33
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TEX chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10150%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+10150%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.3our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.3
Over7.3our total————
Under7.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 20%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more37%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.3 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 9.524%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TEX
Jun 6 at TEX
last game
Jun 6 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
CLE·TEX
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.1
runs / game
3.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.9
37−29
season record
31−33
17−14
home record
16−14
20−15
away record
15−19
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.6
0.95
home runs / game
0.97
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.41
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

CLE · TEX · 74 days
Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Jun 6at TEXCLE 6 − 0
Jun 5at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at CLECLE 9 − 8
Sep 27, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at CLETEX 7 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Aug 22, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at CLECLE 4 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at CLECLE 13 − 5

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 6vs CLE0 − 6L
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L