bayesRatings

Nationals at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final WSH 2 – CLE 3
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH001000001250
CLE000030003110
Team box
WSH·CLE
5
hits
11
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
2
125
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-4001
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4101
CJ AbramsWSH2-3001
Travis BazzanaCLE2-4100
Austin HedgesCLE1-4100
Jose RamirezCLE0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
PJ PoulinWSH1.00011
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH3.26201
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.03124
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.02102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, CLE 56% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
CLE by 0.7
Expected score
CLE 4.7 – 4.0 WSH
Expected total
8.7
NationalsThe matchupGuardians
+126Our fair odds−126
4.0Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating+0.07
5.4Runs / game4.2
5.5Allowed / game3.9
8.5Hits / game7.4
1.29Home runs / game0.98
3.6Walks drawn / game4.1
29−27Season record32−25
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CLE chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi40.7%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+12644%+14640.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12656%−18364.6%———
SpreadCLE by 0.7
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.7 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more42%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHPJ Poulin RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 3 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CLE
May 26 at CLE
last game
May 26 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
WSH·CLE
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
5.4
runs / game
4.2
5.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
29−27
season record
32−25
10−16
home record
15−12
19−11
away record
17−13
W4
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.5
hits / game
7.4
1.29
home runs / game
0.98
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.89
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

WSH · CLE · 63 days
Washington NationalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
May 26at CLEWSH 6 − 3
May 25at CLEWSH 10 − 2
May 7, 2025at WSHCLE 8 − 6
May 6, 2025at WSHCLE 9 − 1
May 6, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 9
Jun 2, 2024at CLEWSH 5 − 2
Jun 1, 2024at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 31, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 1
Apr 16, 2023at WSHWSH 7 − 6
Apr 15, 2023at WSHCLE 6 − 4

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
May 26at CLE6 − 3W
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L
May 24at PHI3 − 1W
May 23at PHI0 − 3L
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W