bayesRatings

Nationals at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final WSH 6 – CLE 3
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH0400000026110
CLE000010002380
Team box
WSH·CLE
11
hits
8
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
6
strikeouts
12
134
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James WoodWSH3-4212
Keibert RuizWSH2-4102
Jose RamirezCLE1-4002
Brayan RocchioCLE3-3100
Andres ChaparroWSH1-5002
Travis BazzanaCLE1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.05127
Mitchell Parker (S)WSH3.03215
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE2.03441

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
WSH +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · WSH 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 44%, CLE 56% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
CLE by 0.8
Expected score
CLE 4.7 – 3.9 WSH
Expected total
8.6
NationalsThe matchupGuardians
+130Our fair odds−130
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating+0.08
5.4Runs / game4.2
5.5Allowed / game3.9
8.5Hits / game7.4
1.29Home runs / game1.00
3.6Walks drawn / game4.2
28−27Season record32−24
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CLE chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+13044%+10947.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−13056%−13156.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.8
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.8 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more43%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CLE
May 25 at CLE
last game
May 25 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
WSH·CLE
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
5.4
runs / game
4.2
5.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
28−27
season record
32−24
10−16
home record
15−11
18−11
away record
17−13
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.5
hits / game
7.4
1.29
home runs / game
1.00
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.91
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

WSH · CLE · 62 days
Washington NationalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
May 25at CLEWSH 10 − 2
May 7, 2025at WSHCLE 8 − 6
May 6, 2025at WSHCLE 9 − 1
May 6, 2025at WSHWSH 10 − 9
Jun 2, 2024at CLEWSH 5 − 2
Jun 1, 2024at CLECLE 3 − 2
May 31, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 1
Apr 16, 2023at WSHWSH 7 − 6
Apr 15, 2023at WSHCLE 6 − 4
Apr 14, 2023at WSHCLE 4 − 3

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 25at CLE10 − 2W
May 24at ATL2 − 1W
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L
May 24at PHI3 − 1W
May 23at PHI0 − 3L
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W
May 18at DET8 − 2W
May 17vs CIN10 − 3W
May 16vs CIN7 − 4W