bayesRatings

Guardians at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Jun 4 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final CLE 1 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jun 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000100000120
NYY00010010250
Team box
CLE·NYY
2
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Stuart FairchildCLE1-2001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3001
Trent GrishamNYY2-4000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4100
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-3100
Cody BellingerNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade CecconiCLE6.04114
Codi Heuer (L)CLE1.01111
Carlos RodonNYY6.02137
Brent Headrick (W)NYY1.00011
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · CLE 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 44%, NYY 56% · Updated Jun 4

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.8 CLE
Expected total
8.5
GuardiansThe matchupYankees
+129Our fair odds−129
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.07Power rating+0.26
4.2Runs / game5.1
4.1Allowed / game3.6
7.7Hits / game8.0
0.95Home runs / game1.46
3.9Walks drawn / game4.3
36−27Season record36−25
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+12944%+13442.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12956%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NYY
Jun 3 at NYY
last game
Jun 3 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
CLE·NYY
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.2
runs / game
5.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.6
36−27
season record
36−25
17−14
home record
17−11
19−13
away record
19−14
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.0
0.95
home runs / game
1.46
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.43
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · NYY · 71 days
Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Jun 3at NYYCLE 5 − 4
Jun 2at NYYCLE 9 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0
Jun 4, 2025at NYYCLE 4 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 23, 2025at CLENYY 5 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Apr 21, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 4
Oct 19, 2024at CLENYY 5 − 2post
Oct 18, 2024at CLENYY 8 − 6post

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L
May 24at PHI3 − 1W
May 23at PHI0 − 3L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W
May 24vs TB2 − 0W
May 22vs TB2 − 4L