bayesRatings

Red Sox at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 3:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final BOS 9 – CLE 1
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0001010169110
CLE100000000164
Team box
BOS·CLE
11
hits
6
1
home runs
0
5
walks
4
10
strikeouts
11
128
pitches thrown
196
0
errors
4
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS2-6113
Connor WongBOS2-5103
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4002
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-5100
Jose RamirezCLE1-3001
Petey HalpinCLE2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.04137
Parker MessickCLE5.05124
Matt Festa (L)CLE0.21112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +8
BOS +8
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · BOS 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 47%, CLE 53% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.6 BOS
Expected total
7.5
Red SoxThe matchupGuardians
+114Our fair odds−114
3.6Expected runs3.9
+0.01Power rating+0.08
3.8Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game3.9
8.2Hits / game7.5
0.75Home runs / game0.95
3.0Walks drawn / game4.1
23−33Season record34−25
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11447%+10548.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11453%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 19 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CLE
May 29 at CLE
last game
May 29 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
BOS·CLE
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.8
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
23−33
season record
34−25
9−19
home record
17−12
14−14
away record
17−13
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
7.5
0.75
home runs / game
0.95
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.52
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

BOS · CLE · 66 days
Boston Red SoxCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
May 29at CLECLE 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at BOSCLE 8 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 7
Sep 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Apr 27, 2025at CLEBOS 13 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLEBOS 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 4
Apr 24, 2024at CLEBOS 8 − 0
Apr 23, 2024at CLECLE 4 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L
May 24at PHI3 − 1W
May 23at PHI0 − 3L
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W
May 19at DET4 − 3W