bayesRatings

Red Sox at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final BOS 9 – CLE 4
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS1000206009121
CLE0200200004110
Team box
BOS·CLE
12
hits
11
1
home runs
0
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
15
162
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-5102
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4102
Chase DeLauterCLE3-5001
Jarren DuranBOS1-3211
Caleb DurbinBOS1-5002
Austin HedgesCLE1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger SuarezBOS5.084210
Jovani Moran (W)BOS1.10001
Tanner BibeeCLE6.06315
Colin Holderman (L)CLE0.11210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · BOS 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 47%, CLE 53% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.8 – 3.7 BOS
Expected total
7.5
Red SoxThe matchupGuardians
+112Our fair odds−112
3.7Expected runs3.8
+0.03Power rating+0.07
3.9Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game7.5
0.75Home runs / game0.93
3.1Walks drawn / game4.0
24−33Season record34−26
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11247%−10751.8%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11253%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more24%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CLE
May 30 at CLE
last game
May 30 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
BOS·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
3.9
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
24−33
season record
34−26
9−19
home record
17−13
15−14
away record
17−13
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.5
0.75
home runs / game
0.93
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.51
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

BOS · CLE · 67 days
Boston Red SoxCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
May 30at CLEBOS 9 − 1
May 29at CLECLE 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at BOSCLE 8 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at BOSBOS 11 − 7
Sep 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Apr 27, 2025at CLEBOS 13 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLEBOS 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 4
Apr 24, 2024at CLEBOS 8 − 0

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L
May 24at PHI3 − 1W
May 23at PHI0 − 3L
May 22at PHI1 − 0W
May 21at DET3 − 1W
May 20at DET3 − 2W