bayesRatings

Guardians at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 6:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CLE 6 – TEX 0
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000140010690
TEX000000000032
Team box
CLE·TEX
9
hits
3
2
home runs
0
4
walks
2
4
strikeouts
4
97
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4111
Jose RamirezCLE1-3211
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-5001
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5101
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3101
Steven KwanCLE1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE8.03023
Jack Leiter (L)TEX4.26532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
CLE +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · CLE 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 3.9 – 3.4 CLE
Expected total
7.3
GuardiansThe matchupRangers
+101Our fair odds−101
3.4Expected runs3.9
+0.06Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game7.7
0.94Home runs / game0.98
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
36−29Season record31−32
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10150%+10548.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.3
Over7.3our total————
Under7.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 20%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.3 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 9.524%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.82 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TEX
Jun 5 at TEX
last game
Jun 5 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
CLE·TEX
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
36−29
season record
31−32
17−14
home record
16−13
19−15
away record
15−19
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
7.7
0.94
home runs / game
0.98
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.42
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CLE · TEX · 73 days
Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 6−4
Jun 5at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at CLECLE 9 − 8
Sep 27, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at CLETEX 7 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Aug 22, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Aug 25, 2024at CLECLE 4 − 2
Aug 24, 2024at CLECLE 13 − 5
Aug 23, 2024at CLETEX 5 − 3

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W
May 26vs WSH3 − 6L
May 25vs WSH2 − 10L

TEX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 5vs CLE3 − 2W
Jun 3at STL3 − 5L
Jun 2at STL7 − 4W
Jun 1at STL2 − 1W
May 31vs KC6 − 3W
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W