bayesRatings

Tigers at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Jun 12 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final DET 2 – CLE 3
← MLB / Jun 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET001000010220
CLE02000100391
Team box
DET·CLE
2
hits
9
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
148
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James OutmanDET1-3111
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-3111
Steven KwanCLE2-4001
Patrick BaileyCLE2-3101
Brayan RocchioCLE1-3001
Chase DeLauterCLE2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (L)DET3.03211
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE7.02228
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Jun 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.7 DET
Expected total
7.6
TigersThe matchupGuardians
+114Our fair odds−114
3.7Expected runs3.9
−0.03Power rating+0.03
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.07Home runs / game0.93
3.8Walks drawn / game3.9
29−40Season record37−33
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11447%+10548.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11453%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CLE
Jun 11 vs MIN
last game
Jun 10 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
DET·CLE
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
29−40
season record
37−33
18−16
home record
17−17
11−24
away record
20−16
W1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.07
home runs / game
0.93
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.45
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

DET · CLE · 79 days
Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
May 21at DETCLE 3 − 1
May 20at DETCLE 3 − 2
May 19at DETCLE 4 − 3
May 18at DETCLE 8 − 2
Oct 2, 2025at CLEDET 6 − 3post
Oct 1, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 1post
Sep 30, 2025at CLEDET 2 − 1post
Sep 25, 2025at CLEDET 4 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 2

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 11vs MIN11 − 0W
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jun 10vs NYY4 − 8L
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L