bayesRatings

Yankees at Guardians

MLB · Monday, Jun 8 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final NYY 7 – CLE 5
← MLB / Jun 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYY2010100102791
CLE0030020000582
Team box
NYY·CLE
9
hits
8
2
home runs
1
6
walks
6
10
strikeouts
12
202
pitches thrown
179
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4113
Angel MartinezCLE1-4112
Cody BellingerNYY2-5002
Ryan McMahonNYY1-2111
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4001
Patrick BaileyCLE2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY4.14325
David Bednar (W)NYY1.20013
Gavin WilliamsCLE5.04335
Shawn Armstrong (L)CLE1.01120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
NYY +3
12345678910
largest lead: CLE 1 · NYY 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, CLE 46% · Updated Jun 8

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
7.9
YankeesThe matchupGuardians
−117Our fair odds+117
4.5Expected runs3.5
+0.27Power rating+0.06
5.1Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.45Home runs / game0.94
4.2Walks drawn / game3.9
38−26Season record37−30
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · CLE chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%+10548.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians+11746%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byCLE wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·CLE
Jun 7 vs BOS
last game
Jun 7 at TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
NYY·CLE
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
38−26
season record
37−30
19−12
home record
17−14
19−14
away record
20−16
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.45
home runs / game
0.94
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.44
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

NYY · CLE · 75 days
New York YankeesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jun 4at NYYNYY 2 − 1
Jun 3at NYYCLE 5 − 4
Jun 2at NYYCLE 9 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0
Jun 4, 2025at NYYCLE 4 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 23, 2025at CLENYY 5 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Apr 21, 2025at CLECLE 6 − 4
Oct 19, 2024at CLENYY 5 − 2post

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L
May 29vs BOS4 − 3W
May 27vs WSH3 − 2W