bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 5 – NYY 3
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS002120000571
NYY100110000380
Team box
BOS·NYY
7
hits
8
2
home runs
2
1
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
108
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4113
Ben RiceNYY2-3111
Spencer JonesNYY3-3001
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-3111
Trent GrishamNYY1-5111
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.18323
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00021
Ryan Weathers (L)NYY6.07514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · BOS 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.7
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+134Our fair odds−134
3.9Expected runs4.8
+0.03Power rating+0.27
4.0Runs / game5.1
4.1Allowed / game3.6
8.4Hits / game7.9
0.75Home runs / game1.44
3.0Walks drawn / game4.3
26−35Season record37−25
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+13443%+11945.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13457%−14258.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 20 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 4.74 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Jun 4 vs BAL
last game
Jun 4 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.0
runs / game
5.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.6
26−35
season record
37−25
10−21
home record
18−11
16−14
away record
19−14
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.9
0.75
home runs / game
1.44
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.51
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 72 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at BOSNYY 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 2

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W
May 24vs TB2 − 0W