bayesRatings

Orioles at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final BAL 1 – BOS 8
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000100190
BOS102050008150
Team box
BAL·BOS
9
hits
15
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
7
149
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-5113
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-5001
Taylor WardBAL3-4100
Adley RutschmanBAL2-5001
Willson ContrerasBOS3-4100
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Bassitt (L)BAL3.06321
Payton Tolle (W)BOS6.07025
Ryan Watson (S)BOS3.02122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +8
BAL +8
123456789
largest lead: BOS 8 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.6 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.6
OriolesThe matchupRed Sox
+120Our fair odds−120
3.9Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating+0.03
4.6Runs / game3.9
5.2Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.15Home runs / game0.75
3.9Walks drawn / game3.1
29−32Season record25−34
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12046%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12054%−15460.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·BOS
Jun 2 at BOS
last game
Jun 2 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
BAL·BOS
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.6
runs / game
3.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.1
29−32
season record
25−34
19−15
home record
9−20
10−17
away record
16−14
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.15
home runs / game
0.75
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.54
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

BAL · BOS · 70 days
Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Jun 2at BOSBAL 4 − 2
Apr 26at BALBOS 5 − 3
Apr 25at BALBOS 17 − 1
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at BALBOS 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at BOSBAL 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at BOSBAL 6 − 3

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jun 2at BOS4 − 2W
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W
May 29vs TOR5 − 6L
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L
May 27vs TB11 − 2W
May 26vs TB6 − 1W
May 25vs TB9 − 7W
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L