bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Orioles

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TOR 6 – BAL 5
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0000004206102
BAL002120000580
Team box
TOR·BAL
10
hits
8
2
home runs
3
1
walks
4
5
strikeouts
3
153
pitches thrown
125
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Samuel BasalloBAL2-3112
Jackson HollidayBAL2-4211
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4112
Charles McAdooTOR1-4112
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4102
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adam MackoTOR1.23001
Mason Fluharty (W)TOR1.10001
Braydon Fisher (S)TOR1.00000
Trevor RogersBAL6.06413
Yennier Cano (L)BAL0.13200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, BAL 47% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
TOR by 0.8
Expected score
TOR 5.1 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.4
Blue JaysThe matchupOrioles
−113Our fair odds+113
5.1Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating−0.10
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game7.9
0.93Home runs / game1.12
2.9Walks drawn / game3.8
28−29Season record26−31
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11353%+10548.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%−13156.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.8
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.8 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBAL wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more44%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORAdam Macko RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 12.41 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BAL
May 28 at BAL
last game
May 28 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
TOR·BAL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.2
28−29
season record
26−31
17−13
home record
17−14
11−16
away record
9−17
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.9
0.93
home runs / game
1.12
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.63
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

TOR · BAL · 65 days
Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
May 28at BALTOR 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 4
Sep 12, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Jul 30, 2025at BALTOR 9 − 8
Jul 29, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at BALBAL 16 − 4
Jul 28, 2025at BALBAL 11 − 4
Apr 13, 2025at BALTOR 7 − 6
Apr 12, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 28at BAL2 − 1W
May 27vs MIA2 − 1W
May 26vs MIA8 − 1W
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L
May 27vs TB11 − 2W
May 26vs TB6 − 1W
May 25vs TB9 − 7W
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L