bayesRatings

Orioles at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final BAL 4 – BOS 2
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL012100000490
BOS100010000250
Team box
BAL·BOS
9
hits
5
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
9
119
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4112
Coby MayoBAL1-4111
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-3001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4000
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2100
Leody TaverasBAL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Baz (W)BAL7.04226
Rico Garcia (S)BAL1.00002
Connelly Early (L)BOS5.16416

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · BAL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, BOS 55% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.0 BAL
Expected total
8.7
OriolesThe matchupRed Sox
+122Our fair odds−122
4.0Expected runs4.7
−0.09Power rating+0.04
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.2Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.13Home runs / game0.76
3.9Walks drawn / game3.1
28−32Season record25−33
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12245%+11446.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12255%−13757.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 19 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·BOS
May 31 vs TOR
last game
May 31 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
BAL·BOS
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.1
28−32
season record
25−33
19−15
home record
9−19
9−17
away record
16−14
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.13
home runs / game
0.76
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

BAL · BOS · 69 days
Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Apr 26at BALBOS 5 − 3
Apr 25at BALBOS 17 − 1
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at BALBOS 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at BOSBAL 4 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at BOSBAL 6 − 3
May 25, 2025at BOSBAL 5 − 1

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 31vs TOR9 − 5W
May 30vs TOR6 − 5W
May 29vs TOR5 − 6L
May 28vs TOR1 − 2L
May 27vs TB11 − 2W
May 26vs TB6 − 1W
May 25vs TB9 − 7W
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W
May 22vs DET7 − 4W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W