bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 1 – NYY 6
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000001000160
NYY000010056100
Team box
BOS·NYY
6
hits
10
0
home runs
2
1
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
133
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4113
Cody BellingerNYY2-4111
Trent GrishamNYY3-4101
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ranger SuarezBOS6.16106
Justin Slaten (L)BOS0.23412
Cam SchlittlerNYY5.24115
Tim Hill (W)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +5
BOS +5
123456789
largest lead: NYY 5 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.7
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+131Our fair odds−131
4.0Expected runs4.7
+0.04Power rating+0.26
4.0Runs / game5.0
4.1Allowed / game3.6
8.4Hits / game7.9
0.77Home runs / game1.44
3.0Walks drawn / game4.3
27−35Season record37−26
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+13143%+11945.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13157%−14258.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Jun 5 at NYY
last game
Jun 5 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.0
runs / game
5.0
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.6
27−35
season record
37−26
10−21
home record
18−12
17−14
away record
19−14
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.9
0.77
home runs / game
1.44
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.52
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 74 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 7−3
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3
Apr 23at BOSNYY 4 − 2
Apr 22at BOSNYY 4 − 1
Apr 21at BOSNYY 4 − 0
Oct 2, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0post
Oct 1, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3post
Sep 30, 2025at NYYBOS 3 − 1post
Sep 14, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Sep 13, 2025at BOSNYY 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at BOSNYY 4 − 1

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 5at NYY5 − 3W
Jun 4vs BAL2 − 8L
Jun 3vs BAL8 − 1W
Jun 2vs BAL2 − 4L
May 31at CLE9 − 4W
May 30at CLE9 − 1W
May 29at CLE3 − 4L
May 28vs ATL2 − 10L
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W
May 27at KC7 − 0W
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W