bayesRatings

Yankees at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 10 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final NYY 8 – CLE 4
← MLB / Jun 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0300032008111
CLE100200001462
Team box
NYY·CLE
11
hits
6
0
home runs
1
6
walks
4
8
strikeouts
9
135
pitches thrown
176
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-5111
Austin HedgesCLE2-4002
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4203
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4102
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4001
Trent GrishamNYY2-4300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos Rodon (W)NYY6.04337
Parker Messick (L)CLE5.25434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · NYY 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, CLE 46% · Updated Jun 10

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 3.5 CLE
Expected total
8.0
YankeesThe matchupGuardians
−120Our fair odds+120
4.5Expected runs3.5
+0.28Power rating+0.04
5.1Runs / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.47Home runs / game0.93
4.3Walks drawn / game3.9
40−26Season record37−32
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · CLE chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12054%+10149.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians+12046%−12154.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byCLE wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·CLE
Jun 9 at CLE
last game
Jun 9 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
NYY·CLE
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.1
runs / game
4.0
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
40−26
season record
37−32
19−12
home record
17−16
21−14
away record
20−16
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.47
home runs / game
0.93
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.45
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

NYY · CLE · 77 days
New York YankeesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Jun 9at CLENYY 3 − 2
Jun 8at CLENYY 7 − 5
Jun 4at NYYNYY 2 − 1
Jun 3at NYYCLE 5 − 4
Jun 2at NYYCLE 9 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 0
Jun 4, 2025at NYYCLE 4 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Apr 23, 2025at CLENYY 5 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 9at CLE3 − 2W
Jun 8at CLE7 − 5W
Jun 7vs BOS6 − 1W
Jun 5vs BOS3 − 5L
Jun 4vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 3vs CLE4 − 5L
Jun 2vs CLE4 − 9L
May 31at ATH13 − 8W
May 30at ATH4 − 6L
May 29at ATH8 − 2W

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jun 9vs NYY2 − 3L
Jun 8vs NYY5 − 7L
Jun 7at TEX0 − 10L
Jun 6at TEX6 − 0W
Jun 5at TEX2 − 3L
Jun 4at NYY1 − 2L
Jun 3at NYY5 − 4W
Jun 2at NYY9 − 4W
May 31vs BOS4 − 9L
May 30vs BOS1 − 9L