bayesRatings

Twins at Tigers

MLB · Thursday, Jun 11 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final MIN 0 – DET 11
← MLB / Jun 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000000050
DET1003121311130
Team box
MIN·DET
5
hits
13
0
home runs
6
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
5
128
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colt KeithDET2-4213
Zach McKinstryDET2-3111
Wenceel PerezDET1-1112
Riley GreeneDET1-3112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4112
Gleyber TorresDET1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN6.09714
Keider Montero (W)DET6.14014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +11
MIN +11
123456789
largest lead: DET 11 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, DET 54% · Updated Jun 11

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.6 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
8.7
TwinsThe matchupTigers
+116Our fair odds−116
4.1Expected runs4.6
−0.14Power rating−0.05
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.8
1.13Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.8
31−38Season record28−40
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11646%+10548.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11654%−13156.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more40%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 15 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Jun 10 at DET
last game
Jun 10 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
MIN·DET
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
31−38
season record
28−40
18−18
home record
17−16
13−20
away record
11−24
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
7.8
1.13
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.62
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 78 days
Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Jun 10at DETMIN 6 − 4
Jun 9at DETDET 10 − 4
Apr 9at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 10at DET6 − 4W
Jun 9at DET4 − 10L
Jun 7vs KC5 − 6L
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L