bayesRatings

Tigers at Astros

MLB · Monday, Jun 15 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final DET 9 – HOU 3
← MLB / Jun 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET1130102019110
HOU003000000370
Team box
DET·HOU
11
hits
7
5
home runs
2
4
walks
3
18
strikeouts
10
142
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colt KeithDET3-4336
Kevin McGonigleDET2-3211
Isaac ParedesHOU1-1112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4111
Jose AltuveHOU1-4111
Dillon DinglerDET2-4300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew AndersonDET2.22125
Kyle Finnegan (W)DET1.01011
Kai-Wei Teng (L)HOU3.16529

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
DET +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · DET 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Jun 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.5 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.8
TigersThe matchupAstros
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.04Power rating−0.04
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.2Allowed / game5.1
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.07Home runs / game1.32
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
29−42Season record33−40
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10748%+10149.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10752%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byHOU wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETDrew Anderson RP · last 2 starts: 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 7 Kstarted
HOUKai-Wei Teng RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·HOU
Jun 13 at CLE
last game
Jun 14 at KC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
DET·HOU
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
29−42
season record
33−40
18−16
home record
16−19
11−26
away record
17−21
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.07
home runs / game
1.32
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.45
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

DET · HOU · 82 days
Detroit TigersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Aug 20, 2025at DETDET 7 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at DETDET 1 − 0
Aug 18, 2025at DETDET 10 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at HOUDET 7 − 4
Apr 29, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 4
Apr 28, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 5
Oct 2, 2024at HOUDET 5 − 2post
Oct 1, 2024at HOUDET 3 − 1post
Jun 16, 2024at HOUHOU 4 − 1
Jun 15, 2024at HOUDET 13 − 5

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 13at CLE1 − 3L
Jun 12at CLE2 − 3L
Jun 11vs MIN11 − 0W
Jun 10vs MIN4 − 6L
Jun 9vs MIN10 − 4W
Jun 7vs SEA5 − 4W
Jun 6vs SEA0 − 4L
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 14at KC0 − 4L
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W
Jun 10at LAA2 − 3L
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L